Records:
Caz 1-0 +$1.27k
TB 1-0 +$1.7k
TB’s Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline (vs. Colorado Rockies)
Odds: MIA 1.53
Wagers Placed:
2x $200 – Liquidation: 3.08
3x $100 – Liquidation: 2.29
4x $100 – Liquidation: 2.05
5x $100 – Liquidation: 1.89
The Case Against Germán Márquez
Another day, another gas can on the mound for the Colorado Rockies. Germán Márquez continues to struggle across the board: he’s allowing a .388 wOBA to right-handed batters and striking them out at just 14.5%. Flip the matchup to lefties, and it doesn’t get much better — .351 wOBA allowed with an even lower 11.7% strikeout rate. Simply put, these Rockies pitchers don’t miss bats, and I believe the Miami Marlins can take advantage of that by playing smart, small-ball baseball.
Two Bad Teams — One Small Edge
This game is a matchup between two of the worst-performing teams in the league, but for me, the edge lies in the Marlins’ starting pitcher and the ballpark factor. Max Meyer’s surface-level numbers aren’t pretty — his biggest issue has been the long ball. And while that sounds like a deal-breaker, Miami’s park is the perfect remedy, consistently ranking among the lowest in home runs allowed. In fact, this year it’s giving up the 3rd fewest homers in the league, continuing a trend we’ve seen for years.
The Strategy: Staggered Liquidations
I’m spreading out my liquidations today because I expect a low-scoring, potentially come-from-behind win for the Marlins. I don’t want to risk getting fully liquidated early on, especially if this turns into a slow grind of a game. Meyer should be able to keep the ball in the park, and if that happens, I like Miami to squeak out a win.
Caz’s Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (vs. New York Mets)
Odds: LAD -166
Wager: 2x $500 – Liquidation: +218
The Los Angeles Dodgers are poised to secure a victory tonight against the New York Mets, capitalizing on their formidable home performance and the Mets' struggles on the road, particularly against right-handed pitching.
Dodgers' Dominance at Home
The Dodgers have been exceptional at Dodger Stadium this season, boasting a 21-9 home record. Their recent home games include commanding victories, such as an 18-2 win over the Yankees on May 31. This strong home-field advantage provides a solid foundation for tonight's game.
Mets' Offensive Struggles on the Road
Conversely, the Mets have faced challenges when playing away from Citi Field. Between May 16 and May 31, they recorded a batting average of just .208 against right-handed pitchers on the road. This decline in offensive production could be a significant factor in tonight's matchup.
Conclusion
Considering the Dodgers' impressive home record and the Mets' difficulties on the road, especially against right-handed pitching, Los Angeles holds a strategic advantage in tonight's game. If the Dodgers can leverage their home-field strength and exploit the Mets' offensive vulnerabilities, they are likely to emerge victorious.
Looking to try out our beta and bet with leverage?
Sign up at: https://app.levr.bet/lab
