June Juice – June 20th
Records
Caz: 7–8 | + $2,314
TB: 7–9 | + $3,282
TB’s Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline (vs. Baltimore Orioles)
Odds: NYY @ 1.44
Wager Placed: 5x $500
Liquidation: 1.79 | To Win: +$1,120
The Yankees bats are starting to come around, and they’re set up with favorable home run weather again today. When this offense is clicking, it’s usually via the long ball — and today’s conditions should play right into their strengths.
Max Fried gets the start for New York and continues to show why he’s their ace. He matches up well against a Baltimore offense that’s underperformed by their standards all season. Fried is a ground-ball machine against right-handed hitters, allowing just a .234 wOBA and posting a 2.06 GB/FB rate, which should help neutralize the warm weather and wind blowing out.
He does give up a bit more damage to lefties — a .294 wOBA and a 1.15 GB/FB rate — but I’m not overly concerned. He should be able to navigate around the four lefties in this Orioles lineup without much trouble.
On the other side, Tomoyuki Sugano gets the ball for Baltimore. While he’s had a solid season overall, he could be vulnerable in this spot. He owns a 1.00 GB/FB rate vs. righties, but the real concern lies with his performance against left-handed hitters: a 13% strikeout rate and nearly 2 home runs allowed per 9 innings.
This is a great setup for the Yankees to jump out early, especially if Fried can give them a few scoreless frames to start the game. That should be enough to keep us safely away from the liquidation line.
I’m going 5x on New York, trusting Fried to hold Baltimore down while the Yankees offense handles the rest.
Caz’s Pick: Chicago Cubs (vs. Seattle Mariners)
Odds: CHC @ -126
Wager Placed: 2x $500
Liquidation: +265 | To Win: $790
1. Pitching Edge
The Cubs will rely on veteran lefty Matthew Boyd, who’s been outstanding with a 2.79 ERA and a solid 73 strikeouts over 80+ innings. His command and ground-ball tendencies should keep Seattle’s offense in check.
By contrast, the Mariners are starting George Kirby, whose performance has been shaky this year — he’s carrying a 5.96 ERA so far. That sets up a clear betting gap in Chicago’s favor.
2. Historical & Analytical Support
- The Cubs hold a strong record in this matchup, winning 8 of the past 10 meetings with Seattle.
- As favorites of roughly –130, the Cubs are 28–10 this season, winning 70.6% of such games.
- The implied moneyline win probability (56.5%) aligns with smart projections favoring Chicago.
3. Momentum & Ballpark
- Chicago enters with momentum after posting back-to-back favorable results, including bouncing back from recent losses .
- Wrigley Field’s hitter-friendly yet cozy conditions today should pressurize Kirby and benefit Boyd’s offense-first approach.
The Play
With Boyd commanding the mound, Kirby trending in the wrong direction, and statistical backing pointing to a Cubs win, this is a sharp spot to back Chicago on the moneyline. Expect Boyd to set the tone early, Cubs bats to stay active, and the team to lock in a home win to start the series strong.
